How to look at the weather forecast and why not look into the distant future

Many of us were faced with a situation where the weather forecast that we saw on one of the popular sites, made several days in advance, or even for a week, turned out to be incorrect. This becomes especially unpleasant when you planned a trip out of town or to another region, and the weather unexpectedly turned out to be not what you expected. Today we will tell you where and how to watch the weather forecast so that the planned trip is not on the verge of collapse.

First, let's see how the weather forecast is made. Around the globe there are many meteorological stations that collect information about the state of the surface layer of the atmosphere. The most important parameters that are used to predict weather are air temperature, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure and precipitation.

Today, all forecasts are made using the latest computer programs, but the forecasting algorithm is largely the same as it was dozens of years ago. Its meaning is that the weather changes under the influence of the movement of air masses. In simpler terms, tomorrow at a particular point on the planet the weather will be the same as where today the wind blows and the surface layers of air move. That is, for weather forecasting, the direction of the wind, its speed and actual weather data in the nearest region are important. In addition, atmospheric air parameters at altitude are taken into account, primarily atmospheric pressure indicators.

The atmosphere of our planet is a dynamically changing system with many interconnected parameters. And no matter how complete the analysis of the incoming data, the most accurate weather forecast with 100% confidence is possible only for a few hours. It is no coincidence that the weather forecast for airports is updated every 3 hours.

Based on this, the most reliable may be a weather forecast compiled for the next 24 hours. You can see it on the official site of Roshydromet in your region.

Please note that on the websites of the State Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, weather forecasts are usually posted for no more than three days. This is due to the fact that the reliability of the forecast is reduced every day, and for more than three days to make it is quite problematic.

Today, there are several long-term weather forecasting techniques and computer models based on them. But none of them gives 100% of the result, and a reliable forecast with an accuracy of 50-80% for the next 5-7 days is considered a very good indicator all over the world.

Therefore, it should be clearly remembered that an accurate weather forecast can be made only for the next one to three days. The future, unfortunately, is not subject to humanity. And sites that offer on their pages a weather forecast of 10, 15 and even 30 days can be safely attributed to entertainment content.